Logistics & transport

360-DAY DRY CARGO TIME CHARTER

Worked example: this is the full analysis a Hashike account shows for this opportunity. Data as of Oct 31, 2026.

Agency
NavyDEPT OF DEFENSE.DEPT OF THE NAVY.MSCHQ NORFOLK
Notice type
Solicitation
Status
Open
NAICS
483111
PSC
V124
Posted
2026-11-02
Response due
Nov 5, 2026, 03:00 JST (0 days left)
Place of performance
JPN

Requirement

What is being purchased?

Original English — the controlling text

Open the official source on SAM.gov ↗

PLEASE SEE ATTACHED AMENDMENT 0002. PLEASE SEE ATTACHED AMENDMENT 0001 AND Q&A 0001. RFP N3220527R6015 IS HEREBY RELEASED. SEE ATTACHED DOCUMENTS.

Japanese — AI translation

AI-generated translation, unedited, for orientation only — not the controlling text. Rely on the English original and SAM.gov's official notice for bid decisions.

Comparable market analysis

Everything from here down is calculated from past contracts in the same category and place of performance. It says nothing about this specific notice.

Market depth: moderate — 134 analyzed awards, 20 suppliers, 2 buying organizations, 3 contracting offices. 6.7 awards per supplier, and repeat suppliers account for 95%.

02Market intelligence

How large is the comparable market, and what shape is it?

Comparable demand

134

public award records with activity recorded between 2022-10-31 and 2026-10-31, using last-modified date as a proxy for USAspending's action-date window (an award may have started earlier)

How this is calculated

Place of performance Japan, NAICS 483111, prime awards only. No dollar floor applied.

Typical award value

$6.0M

Middle 50%: $2.2M–$8.3M

of 134 analyzed comparable awards

How this is calculated

Median and quartiles. The median leads because a mean is pulled by a few very large awards.

Observed competition

25

Single offer: 6/134

of the 134 awards with a reported offer count

How this is calculated

Offer counts appear only on award detail records. Of all 134 awards with a detail record on file, 134 reported an offer count; 6 of those recorded a single offer. The remaining 0 analyzed awards have no detail record. These percentages cannot be applied to awards without a detail record.

Supplier concentration

43%

Top 5: 87% · 20 suppliers

by observed value across 134 analyzed awards

How this is calculated

Share of the federal awards analyzed here — not commercial market share in this sector.

Observed recurrence

29.0/yr

116 / 4.0 yr

comparable awards that began within the observation window

How this is calculated

18 analyzed awards began before the window and were still active inside it; they are ongoing work, not new demand, so they are excluded here.

Awards to Japan-based suppliers

6

US 124 · Other 4

of 134 awards with a recorded supplier country (0 unknown)

How this is calculated

Supplier location is an observed characteristic. It does not establish eligibility, which is set by each solicitation.

Evidence strength

Evidence: moderate
  • Calculated from 134 public award records.

Every figure here is calculated from past public award records. None of it describes what will happen on this solicitation.

Official procurement database — USAspending.gov federal award data synced to Hashike ↗ · Retrieved 2026-10-31

03Award economics

What have comparable awards been worth?

Median $6.0M$1K$10K$100K$1M$10M
Minimum
$154
25th percentile
$2.2M
Median
$6.0M
75th percentile
$8.3M
Maximum
$88.4M
Mean
$7.0M
Each dot is one of the 134 analyzed comparable awards, placed by award value. The scale is logarithmic: $500K to $1M takes the same width as $5M to $10M. The axis starts at $154, the smallest award analyzed.
Full distribution statistics
Count134
Minimum$154
25th percentile$2,191,895
Median$6,038,757
75th percentile$8,290,316
Maximum$88,410,429
Mean$7,018,197
Standard deviation$10,360,679
Interquartile range$6,098,421
Coefficient of variation1.48
Total$940,438,355

Percentiles use linear interpolation — the same definition as a spreadsheet's PERCENTILE function. 0 records with a non-positive amount were excluded as administrative modifications rather than work anyone bid for.

"Award amount" is obligations recorded against the award to date — not the contract ceiling, and not outlays. Based on 134 analyzed awards.

Ceiling value (detail-examined subset)

Of the 134 awards examined in detail, 134 carried a recorded ceiling (Base and All Options Value). Its median was $6,038,757, against a median obligated amount of $6,038,757 across the same 134 awards — 1.0x. 131 of those had a ceiling equal to the obligated amount, meaning no unexercised option value.

The ceiling is what the award could reach if every priced option were exercised — it is not spending that has happened or a forecast that it will.

04Demand pattern

How frequently have comparable awards occurred?

Awards per year

29.0

Quarterly 7.3 · Monthly 2.4

116 awards over the 4.0-year observation window

Median days between awards

7 days

Middle 50%: 0–24 days

across 115 consecutive award pairs

Most recent comparable award

2026-06-24

134 days ago

observed range 2022-11-01 to 2026-06-24

Awards that began earlier

18

analyzed awards that began before the window and were still active within it

How this is calculated

Ongoing work rather than new demand, so it is excluded from the frequency figures above.

01020304072022partial292023342024332025132026partialAwards
116 of the 134 analyzed awards, counted by the calendar year each award began. Awards that began before the observation window are not counted.Hatched years fall only partly inside the observation window, so their counts look lower than a full year's. The most recent months also run low because the Department of Defense releases contract data to USAspending about 90 days after award. This is past activity and does not indicate future demand.
Annual breakdown
YearCountTotalMedianPeriod
20227$40.1M$6.2MPartial year
202329$163.1M$6.1MFull year
202434$210.1M$4.7MFull year
202533$153.5M$6.0MFull year
202613$121.0M$6.2MPartial year

Historical award activity. It does not indicate when or whether comparable requirements will be solicited again.

05Reported competition

How many offers have comparable procurements reported?

The population behind this statistic

  1. ① Comparable awards matching the filters: 134
  2. ② Of those, examined in detail: 134
  3. ③ Of those, with a reported offer count: 134 ← every share below is over this 134
  • Single offer reported6 of 134 · 4%
  • Two or more offers128 of 134 · 96%
Covers the 134 awards with a reported offer count. Awards without one are left out.

Median reported offers

25

Mean 18.9 · Range 1–29

of the 134 awards with a reported offer count

Awards reporting a single offer

6 / 134

4%

of the 134 awards with a reported offer count

How this is calculated

A single reported offer does not mean no other supplier could have bid. It records only that one offer was reported.

Awards reporting multiple offers

128 / 134

96%

of the 134 awards with a reported offer count

Offer count unavailable

0

Not detail-fetched 0 · No record 0

of 134 analyzed comparable awards

Distribution of reported offers

  • 1 offer6 / 134
  • 2 offers8 / 134
  • 3 offers6 / 134
  • 4 offers3 / 134
  • 5 offers4 / 134
  • 6 offers4 / 134
  • 7 offers7 / 134
  • 8 offers3 / 134
  • 12 offers1 / 134
  • 13 offers1 / 134
  • 14 offers1 / 134
  • 22 offers1 / 134
  • 23 offers2 / 134
  • 25 offers21 / 134
  • 26 offers60 / 134
  • 27 offers2 / 134
  • 29 offers4 / 134
Recorded competition procedures (134 awards)
  • FULL AND OPEN COMPETITION AFTER EXCLUSION OF SOURCES67.9%
  • COMPETED UNDER SAP28.4%
  • FULL AND OPEN COMPETITION2.2%
  • NOT COMPETED1.5%

The competition procedure the buying office recorded in FPDS. It does not govern who may bid on this solicitation.

Evidence: moderate
  • Calculated from 134 public award records.

Official procurement database — USAspending.gov federal award data synced to Hashike ↗ · Retrieved 2026-10-31

06Competitive landscape

Who has historically performed comparable work?

  1. AMERICAN PRESIDENT LINES, LLC42.8% of value
    61 awards (45.5% of awards)
  2. SCHUYLER LINE NAVIGATION COMPANY LLC19.2% of value
    12 awards (9.0% of awards)
  3. MATSON NAVIGATION COMPANY, INC.9.5% of value
    13 awards (9.7% of awards)
  4. U.S. MARINE MANAGEMENT, LLC8.3% of value
    7 awards (5.2% of awards)
  5. TSP TANKERS HOLDINGS LLC7.2% of value
    9 awards (6.7% of awards)
  6. All other suppliers (15)13.0% of value
    32 awards (23.9% of awards)
Share of observed award value across 134 analyzed awards (20 suppliers): the 5 largest suppliers by value, then all others combined. Bar length runs from 0 to 100%.
SupplierCountShare of awardsAmountShare of valueMedianFirstLatestCountry
6145.5%$402.3M42.8%$6.5M2016-06-302026-04-01USA
129.0%$180.7M19.2%$5.6M2019-07-122026-06-24USA
139.7%$89.7M9.5%$6.1M2022-04-012023-08-01USA
75.2%$77.8M8.3%$8.3M2020-03-172024-10-30USA
96.7%$68.2M7.2%$8.1M2024-06-252026-03-19USA
64.5%$38.8M4.1%$5.3M2024-04-252025-11-24USA
43.0%$19.6M2.1%$4.4M2021-07-012023-05-01USA
32.2%$13.8M1.5%$4.1M2023-05-262024-10-03JPN
32.2%$11.9M1.3%$3.3M2023-02-012023-08-01USA
10.7%$10.4M1.1%$10.4M2026-03-112026-03-11SGP

Distinct suppliers

20

of 134 analyzed comparable awards

How this is calculated

Spelling variants of one company are merged by official identifier (UEI) or normalized name. Different companies are never merged on name similarity alone.

Top supplier share

43%

By award count: 46%

by observed value across 134 analyzed awards

Top 5 supplier share

87%

By award count: 76%

by observed value across 134 analyzed awards

HHI (moderately concentrated)

2,439

computed over every supplier in the 134 analyzed awards

How this is calculated

The sum of each supplier's percentage share, squared. Every analyzed award is attributed to a supplier, so this is exact for this population. US antitrust agencies read below 1,500 as unconcentrated and 2,500+ as highly concentrated.

These are shares of the federal awards analyzed here, not commercial market share in this sector. Share of observed value and share of award count are different metrics and can differ sharply for the same supplier.

Repeat suppliers

Suppliers with one award

7

of 20 suppliers

Two awards

3

of 20 suppliers

Three or more

10

of 20 suppliers

Awards to repeat suppliers

95%

Median days to repeat award: 31

of 134 analyzed comparable awards

Public data does not show why a supplier recurs. An ongoing relationship, specialised facilities and sole-source availability all produce the same pattern.

08Buyer landscape

Who is buying this work?

Buying organizations (share of value)

  • USTRANSCOM57.2%
  • Department of the Navy42.8%

2 buying organizations account for the 134 analyzed awards; the largest holds 57% of observed value.

Contracting offices

Contracting officeCountShare of awardsAmountShare of valueMedianFirstLatest
9067.2%$537.5M57.2%$6.0M2016-06-302026-04-01
4130.6%$402.2M42.8%$6.3M2019-07-122026-06-24
32.2%$728K0.1%$229K2024-07-172025-11-04

Contracting office appears only on detail records, so this covers the 134 awards examined in detail, out of 134 analyzed. Concentration at a single office may indicate a recurring requirement specific to that office.

09Recurring supplier context

Are there recurring suppliers worth investigating as possible incumbents?

Public procurement data has no incumbent field. What follows is a pattern extracted mechanically from award records. It does not establish that any supplier currently holds this work, or that it will win the next award. Treat it as a starting point for research.

  • 61 · $402.3M · latest 2026-04-01

    • 61 of the 134 analyzed comparable awards
    • 61 of the 61 with a known contracting office came from the same one (USTRANSCOM-AQ)
    • Most recent comparable award 2026-04-01, within 540 days of this analysis
    • That is 46% of the analyzed comparable awards
  • 13 · $89.7M · latest 2023-08-01

    • 13 of the 134 analyzed comparable awards
    • 13 of the 13 with a known contracting office came from the same one (USTRANSCOM-AQ)
  • 12 · $180.7M · latest 2026-06-24

    • 12 of the 134 analyzed comparable awards
    • 9 of the 12 with a known contracting office came from the same one (MSCHQ NORFOLK)
    • Most recent comparable award 2026-06-24, within 540 days of this analysis
  • TSP TANKERS HOLDINGS LLCSignal: moderate

    9 · $68.2M · latest 2026-03-19

    • 9 of the 134 analyzed comparable awards
    • 9 of the 9 with a known contracting office came from the same one (MSCHQ NORFOLK)
    • Most recent comparable award 2026-03-19, within 540 days of this analysis
  • 7 · $77.8M · latest 2024-10-30

    • 7 of the 134 analyzed comparable awards
    • 7 of the 7 with a known contracting office came from the same one (MSCHQ NORFOLK)

Derived from the 134 analyzed comparable awards. It does not imply that other suppliers will not bid.

10Supplier geography

Where are the suppliers based, and where is the work performed?

LocationCountShare of awardsAmountShare of value
Japan64.5%$14.5M1.5%
United States12492.5%$905.6M96.3%
Other (DENMARK, IRELAND, SINGAPORE)43.0%$20.4M2.2%
Unknown0———

Shares are over the 134 of 134 analyzed awards that carry a supplier address. The other 0 have no recipient location recorded in the public data.

Supplier location is an observed characteristic, not a statement of eligibility. That Japan-based suppliers have won comparable work does not mean a Japan-based firm may bid on this solicitation; that U.S.-based suppliers have performed in Japan does not mean any U.S. firm could. Eligibility is set by this solicitation.

Place-of-performance record

Japan 134 · Other 0 · Not recorded 0. Place of performance is the filter that scoped this comparable set — a separate field from supplier location.

The 8 largest analyzed comparable awards

Descriptions are written by the buying office and are often terse or blank. These are the largest awards, not typical ones — the median above is the guide to a typical award.

Set-aside status

Does a set-aside restrict who may bid?

This solicitation

No Set aside used

As stated on SAM.gov

Comparable historical awards

  • NO SET ASIDE USED.131
  • SMALL BUSINESS SET ASIDE - TOTAL3

Of the 134 awards examined in detail, 134 had a recorded set-aside status

The historical distribution is descriptive only and does not determine eligibility for this solicitation. Review the notice and SAM.gov for the eligibility and restrictions that apply, including any bearing on non-U.S. entities.

11Reading the data

What is observed, what it may mean, and what it does not establish

  • FactOf all 134 awards with a detail record on file, 134 reported an offer count.
    ObservationAcross those 134 awards the median reported offer count is 25, and 6 of them recorded a single offer.
    Possible implicationComparable procurements may typically have drawn more than one offer.
    To verifyWhat operational, geographic, regulatory or capability requirements may limit participation?
    Evidence: moderate
  • FactAcross the 134 analyzed awards the median value is $6.0M, with the middle 50% falling between $2.2M and $8.3M.
    ObservationThe mean of $7.0M and median of $6.0M are close, so values are relatively tightly grouped.
    Possible implicationThis range is a reference point against the contract size a firm can take on.
    To verifyWhere in this distribution is the notice under review likely to fall, judging from its statement of work and CLIN structure?
    Evidence: moderate
  • Fact116 comparable awards began within the observation window, the first on 2022-11-01 and the most recent on 2026-06-24. A further 18 analyzed awards began before the window and were still receiving obligations inside it; they are ongoing work rather than new demand, so they are excluded from this count.
    ObservationThat averages about 29 awards per year, with a median of 7 days between consecutive awards.
    Possible implicationThis category shows recurring historical demand, so comparable requirements may appear again.
    To verifyHow often are comparable requirements recompeted, and does any public source indicate when the next one is due?
    Evidence: moderate
  • FactThe 134 analyzed awards went to 20 suppliers; the largest holds 43% of observed value and the top five hold 87%.
    ObservationThat gives an HHI of 2,439, which the US antitrust agencies' bands describe as moderately concentrated.
    Possible implicationThis is concentration among the federal awards analyzed here — not commercial market share in this sector.
    To verifyAre the leading suppliers concentrated at particular contracting offices, and does the record contain any first-time entrants?
    Evidence: moderate
  • FactOf the 134 analyzed awards with a recorded supplier country, 6 went to Japan-based suppliers and 124 to U.S.-based suppliers.
    ObservationJapan-based suppliers account for 4% of the analyzed awards with a known supplier country.
    Possible implicationJapan-based suppliers have won comparable work, but eligibility is set per solicitation; it cannot be inferred from where a supplier is based.
    To verifyDoes this solicitation contain conditions bearing on non-U.S. entities — set-aside status, registration requirements, export controls?
    Evidence: moderate

A possible implication is an interpretation, not a finding. Public award data cannot establish cause.

12Questions to investigate

What to verify before deciding whether to pursue this

  1. 01

    Who performed the most recent comparable award, and what does the public record show about it?

    ← The most recent comparable award started 2026-06-24.

  2. 02

    Is the same supplier repeatedly serving this contracting office, and is there evidence of an incumbent relationship?

    ← AMERICAN PRESIDENT LINES, LLC holds 61 of the analyzed comparable awards.

  3. 03

    Are comparable requirements typically competed, or does the record show limited-source procedures?

    ← Of the 134 awards with a recorded competition procedure, the most common is "FULL AND OPEN COMPETITION AFTER EXCLUSION OF SOURCES".

  4. 04

    Are awards concentrated among a small number of suppliers, and are the larger awards concentrated among particular ones?

    ← The top five suppliers hold 87% of observed value.

  5. 05

    How much comparable work has gone to Japan-based suppliers, and is there evidence of subcontracting or teaming?

    ← 6 of the 134 awards with a known supplier country went to Japan-based firms.

  6. 06

    How many contracting offices buy this, or is it one office's recurring requirement?

    ← The 134 analyzed awards span 3 contracting offices.

  7. 07

    What eligibility and registration requirements appear in this notice — SAM registration, NCAGE, export controls, installation access?

  8. 08

    What is missing from the public record, and what should be raised with the contracting office during the question period?

13Data quality

How complete and reliable is the evidence?

Awards analyzed134
Records matching filters134
Detail records fetched134
Duplicates dropped0
Suppliers unresolved by official ID0
Data retrieved2026-10-31 20:41 UTC (3 days ago)

Missingness by field

FieldMissingOfMissing share
Award amount01340.0%
Award start date01340.0%
Supplier name01340.0%
Supplier UEI (identifier used to resolve entities)01340.0%
Reported offer count (of records examined in detail)01340.0%
Supplier country01340.0%
Set-aside (of records examined in detail)01340.0%
Contracting office (of records examined in detail)01340.0%
Award description01340.0%

The denominator differs by field because offer count, set-aside and contracting office exist only on per-award detail records. Those rows are measured against the number of detail records fetched, not against the whole analyzed set.

14What the public data does not tell you

What remains unknown after everything above

  • Why a supplier won — evaluation results, technical scores and price breakdowns are not published
  • Why other suppliers did not bid
  • A supplier's profit margin or cost structure
  • A supplier's capacity, or whether it could take on more work
  • Informal customer relationships or past-performance assessments
  • Undisclosed teaming arrangements or subcontracting structures
  • Proposal quality, or technical capability beyond what is documented
  • When the next comparable requirement will be solicited
  • What the next award will be worth
  • Whether a historical supplier will bid again

These are structural limits of published federal procurement data, not gaps in this analysis. Where one of them matters to a bid decision, it has to be answered outside the public record — through the solicitation's question period or your own market research.

15How comparable awards were selected

Which awards were included, and how was everything calculated?

Place of performanceJapan (JPN)
NAICS483111
Award typeA, B, C, D — prime awards only
Recorded activity window (last-modified date)2022-10-31 → 2026-10-31
Dollar floorNone
Awarding agencyNone (all)
Unit of analysisOne record = one prime award. Modifications are rolled into the award and are not counted separately.
Records matching filters134
Awards analyzed134
Award start-date range (earliest to latest, within the analyzed set)2016-06-30 → 2026-06-24
Detail records fetched134

Excluded

  • IDV (indefinite delivery vehicle) parent records — a ceiling to order against, not an award of work
  • Subawards
  • Grants, loans and direct payments

Selection: A complete census of every award matching these filters.

How it is calculated

  • Percentiles use linear interpolation — the same definition as a spreadsheet's PERCENTILE function.
  • HHI is the sum of each supplier's percentage share of value, squared. Every analyzed award is attributed to a supplier, so this is exact for this population.
  • Spelling variants of one company are merged by official identifier (UEI) or normalized name, never on name similarity alone. Uncertain cases are left unmerged and counted in the data-quality panel.
  • A percentage's denominator is the number of records that carry that field. Records without it are excluded from the denominator.

Official procurement database — USAspending.gov federal award data synced to Hashike ↗ · Retrieved 2026-10-31

16Sources

Where does each part of this page come from?

Every statistic on this page is calculated from public USAspending.gov records. The solicitation's own terms come from SAM.gov, which is authoritative; where the two differ, SAM.gov controls.

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View the official notice and how to bid on SAM.gov ↗

Hashike is an independent service, not affiliated with or endorsed by the US Government, Department of Defense, or SAM.gov. Built entirely on public data (SAM.gov, USAspending.gov). Information only — not legal advice. Confirm eligibility and requirements against the official SAM.gov listing before you bid.